Finance Minister Nicola Willis wants you to know there’s roughly 50 days of fuel in or on the way to New Zealand. No need to panic-buy. Everything is under control.
Except it isn’t. The 50-day figure bundles fuel physically stored in New Zealand with fuel sitting on tankers that are contractually free to divert to higher-paying markets. MBIE’s own data, reported by RNZ, shows just 27 days of petrol, 24 days of diesel, and 28 days of jet fuel actually on shore. The freight industry body Transporting New Zealand puts diesel in-country even lower, at 25 days as of 1 March.
As Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold told the Herald, the whole system is “reliant on us receiving a steady supply of new boats coming every week.” Bernard Hickey was blunter: “It’s not a sure thing that the ship that’s on its way actually gets here with diesel.”
The boats might not come
New Zealand imports every drop of refined fuel it uses since Marsden Point closed in 2022. Some 81% comes from South Korea and Singapore, both countries where companies are now declaring force majeure on contracted deliveries.
The Strait of Hormuz, which carries around 20% of globally traded oil, remains disrupted. Structural damage to refineries and oil facilities across six countries means delays will last months, not weeks, even if hostilities end tomorrow.
The regional response is making it worse. Hickey reported that Asia Pacific is “a little bit panicked”: the Philippines has moved to a four-day working week, Thailand has stopped refined product exports, and China has already banned them. South Korea is considering the same. New Zealand sits at the end of this chain with zero refining capacity.
The 90-day obligation exists mostly on paper
As an IEA member, New Zealand is supposed to hold 90 days of oil stocks. It meets this partly through physical holdings and partly through overseas “ticket” contracts with the US, UK, and Japan. The Minimum Stockholding Obligation itself only came into force on 1 January 2025, requiring importers to hold between 21 and 28 days of different fuels domestically.
Wise Response Society chair Nathan Surendran calls the 90-day figure “largely fictional”, arguing the bulk consists of untested paper agreements, not accessible barrels. His estimate of physical fuel in-country: two to three weeks.
Every sector is already feeling it
This is not an abstract risk. Gull stations ran out of fuel twice in three days as customers chased discounted prices. Waitomo Group CEO Simon Parham reported demand up 15-20% in a single week.
Transporting New Zealand says cost pressures “will have to be passed onto businesses and consumers.” Air New Zealand has suspended its earnings guidance and flagged potential flight cuts. Air Chathams is absorbing $140,000 extra per month in fuel costs. Fertiliser production relies on Middle East inputs including Iranian urea, meaning the supply shock hits farm input costs on top of diesel bills.
Oil prices projected to potentially hit US$150 per barrel would transmit almost immediately to the pump, because fuel companies price based on current Singapore refinery costs, not what they paid for the cargo already here.
Reassurance without a plan
Resources Minister Shane Jones’s own assessment is telling: “Get to May, we’re told by the industry, unless things change there’ll be big challenges.” MBIE has convened the Fuel Sector Coordinating Entity under the National Fuel Plan. But the ministerial oversight group was stood up in response to this crisis, not before it.
The Fuel Security Plan published in November 2025 acknowledged New Zealand’s vulnerability as an island nation without domestic refining. Four months later, that vulnerability is being tested in real time, and the business community still has no visibility on what happens if the ships stop arriving.
Surendran’s advice is direct: “The government needs to be getting its rationing priorities in place now so that people and businesses can plan for themselves.” Thailand, Myanmar, and India have already acted. New Zealand is still counting tankers on the horizon and calling it security.
Sources
- NZ Herald: Nicola Willis urges motorists not to panic-buy fuel as oil prices spike (2026-03-11)
- NZ Herald: Fuel security warning – How vulnerable New Zealand is to a global oil shock (2026-03-11)
- RNZ: Fuel supplies in NZ – ‘Unless things change there’ll be big challenges’ (2026-03-11)
- RNZ: Advocacy group calls for National Fuel Security Plan to be activated (2026-03-10)
- RNZ: NZ has ‘healthy stock levels’ of fuel – MBIE (2026-03-07)
- Transporting New Zealand: Fuel information for road freight sector (2026-03-11)
- CILT: Sector update – New Zealand fuel stocks amid Middle East tensions (2026-03-11)
- Wise Response: Hormuz Crisis Deepens – One Week In, the Strait Remains Closed and New Zealand Has No Plan (2026-03-09)
- MBIE: Fuel Security Plan – November 2025 (2025-11-01)